Market Prediction

In yesterday's trading, JCI fell above 1%, market participants were worried about the surge in daily Covid cases which hit a new record of 47k and fears that PPKM might be extended.

On the other hand, Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) revised the projection of Indonesia's economic growth for 2021 to 3.7% - 4.5% (yoy) from the previous 4.5%-5.3% (yoy).

JCI closed down with a bearish candle. The stochastic indicator is bearish, MACD histogram is positive but down (line flat) and volume is increasing. JCI is expected to further decline to the support at the range of 5,947 – 5,969. The resistance level if it strengthens is in the range of 6,039 – 6,055.

Commodities Review

• Oil prices rose on Tuesday (13/7), recovering from the previous day's decline. Expectations of a further decline in United States (US) crude oil inventories outweighed concerns that the spread of the Covid-19 variant could derail the global economic recovery.
• Gold prices increased slightly on Tuesday, with a stronger dollar offsetting support from bets that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to respond with monetary tightening after U.S. consumer prices rose the most in 13 years in June.

Macro Economic News

• Annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 5.4% in June of 2021 from 5% in May, hitting a fresh high since August of 2008, and well above forecasts of 4.9%.
• China's trade surplus was at USD 51.53 billion in June 2021, far above market consensus of USD 44.2 billion and compared with a surplus of USD 44.8 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the largest trade surplus since January, amid further recovery in global demand and high commodity prices.

Corporate news

• PT Modernland Realty (MDLN) throughout the first quarter of 2021, it posted marketing sales of IDR 341 billion. This was driven by the policy of providing fiscal incentives for exemption from value added tax (VAT) for housing products below IDR 2 billion.
• PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk. (ALDO) is optimistic that it can achieve its sales target this year as ALDO's sales have increased by 5.4 percent compared to the position in December 2020 and 9.4 percent compared to the first quarter of 2020.
• Sales of heavy equipment owned by PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) were slightly depressed in the last two months. Volume of Komatsu heavy equipment sales recorded only about 167 units in May. This number is down from April sales of 221 units, down 24.2% on a monthly basis.

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